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Will a U.S. film exceed $2B at the global box office in 2026?

A small number of blockbuster films have surpassed $2 billion in global box office revenue – Avatar, Avengers: Endgame, and Titanic. Learn more

Trends

Percentages (%) reflect how people are predicting, not probabilities

Yes

No

Choose an option⁠

Yes

59%

59¢

No

41%

41¢

Rules Summary

This market resolves to YES if any U.S.-produced film released in 2026 earns more than $2 billion in global box office revenue. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. This market outcome will be verified by reports from major industry sources such as Box Office Mojo or The Numbers.

Market Closes

This market closes on 12/31/2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

This market may close and expire early if the event occurs before the close date. Otherwise, it closes by 12/31/2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Ideas⁠

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About Filmmaker

Choose an option⁠

Yes

59%

59¢

No

41%

41¢