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The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power

Will Season 3 show the downfall of Númenor?

Númenor is the island kingdom of Men that Tolkien fans know is heading for disaster. Last season, Elendil escaped with Narsil, the sword that will one day be used against Sauron. The island's fall comes centuries later in Tolkien's timeline, but this show hasn't followed that timeline closely. Will Númenor sink beneath the waves this season? Learn more

Trends

Percentages (%) reflect how people are predicting, not probabilities

Season 3

Season 4 or later

Choose an option⁠

Season 3

39%

39¢

Season 4 or later

61%

61¢

Rules Summary

The market resolves YES if we see the downfall of Númenor (being destroyed or sinking into the sea). Otherwise, the market resolves NO. The outcome will be verified by Prime Video.

Market Closes

This market closes on 11/11/2026 at 6:59 PM ET.

This market may close and expire early if the event occurs before the close date. Otherwise, it closes by 11/11/2026, 6:59 PM ET.

Ideas⁠

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Choose an option⁠

Season 3

39%

39¢

Season 4 or later

61%

61¢