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Survivor

When will the first correct idol play of Survivor 51 happen?

Twenty-one new players are walking into a season where every idol from 50 years of the show could be in play — and none of them know which ones, or when. Somebody will eventually hand Jeff an idol at Tribal Council and watch the votes against them get thrown out. Learn more

Trends

Percentages (%) reflect how people are predicting, not probabilities

Episode 1
Episode 2–3
Episode 4–5
Episode 6–7
Episode 8–9
Episode 10–11
Episode 12 or later
No correct idol play this season
  • Episode 1: 5%
  • Episode 2–3: 8%
  • Episode 4–5: 45%
  • Episode 6–7: 8%
  • Episode 8–9: 4%
  • Episode 10–11: 6%
  • Episode 12 or later: 3%
  • No correct idol play this season: 22%

This market is closed and no longer accepting trades.

Rules Summary

The market resolves YES if the selected option. Otherwise, the market resolves NO. The outcome will be verified by Entertainment Weekly, Survivor Wiki (Fandom), Parade, Deadline.

Market Closes

This market closes on 9/23/2026 at 4:00 PM ET.

This market may close and expire early if the event occurs before the close date. Otherwise, it closes by 9/23/2026, 4:00 PM ET.


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