Both films are based on novels by Andy Weir, each exploring survival and problem-solving in space. Project Hail Mary stars Ryan Gosling, while The Martian starred Matt Damon. Learn more
Percentages (%) reflect how people are predicting, not probabilities
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The market resolves to YES if Project Hail Mary grosses more at the domestic opening weekend box office than The Martian. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. Gross figures will be verified using Box Office Mojo.
This market closes on 3/19/2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
This market may close and expire early if the event occurs before the close date. Otherwise, it closes by 3/19/2026, 11:59 PM ET.
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