2025 closed at $8.87 billion. Industry analysts at Gower Street are projecting $9.9 billion for 2026 — with Bruce Nash at The Numbers calling $10 billion "a puncher's chance" thanks to Avengers: Doomsday, The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Toy Story 5, The Mandalorian & Grogu, and Dune. The first quarter already hit $1.77 billion — the best Q1 since the pandemic. Does Hollywood reclaim its first $10B year since 2019? Learn more
Percentages (%) reflect how people are predicting, not probabilities
The market resolves to YES if total earnings are $10B or more. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. The outcome will be verified by total 2026 U.S. domestic box office gross as reported by Box Office Mojo.
This market closes on 12/31/2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
This market may close and expire early if the event occurs before the close date. Otherwise, it closes by 12/31/2026, 11:59 PM ET.