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Will Ethan Hawke receive an Oscar nomination for Best Actor for The Weight?

Critics are calling it some of Ethan Hawke's most commanding work in years — a father pushed to the brink in a survival thriller drawing comparisons to the gritty classics. The Weight earned a 94% critics' score out of Sundance. Come awards season, will the Academy nominate Ethan? Learn more

Trends

Percentages (%) reflect how people are predicting, not probabilities

Yes

No

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Yes

49%

49¢

No

51%

51¢

Rules Summary

The market resolves YES if Ethan Hawke is nominated for Oscar Best Actor. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. The outcome will be verified by the Academy.

Market Closes

This market closes on 1/10/2027 at 11:27 PM ET.

This market may close and expire early if the event occurs before the close date. Otherwise, it closes by 1/10/2027, 11:27 PM ET.

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Yes

49%

49¢

No

51%

51¢